{
 "schema_version": "v2",
 "article": "findings_nifty_august_2026_monthly_close_band",
 "title": "Nifty August 2026: monthly close inside the 3 percent band",
 "framework": "Monthly close-band franchise, third instance. Cohort frozen at data/backtests/nifty_monthly_close_band.json (225 months; base rates 45.3 per cent all-history, 52.2 per cent in the 2015-onward regime across 138 months). Two prior instances graded, both MET: June 2026 closed at 101.35 per cent of the May close, July 2026 closed 24383.60 inside a 23149.78 to 24581.72 band. Two of two is a thin base and is stated as such. Chart-side tilt: transit Saturn retrograde in Pisces through August (station retrograde 27 July 2026, station direct 11 December 2026) with transit Jupiter exalted in Cancer moving from about 15 to about 20 degrees across the month, read against the India 1947 Taurus-rising chart. Structural tier, no lift claimed; probability 0.60 stated against the 0.522 regime base rate.",
 "published_at": "2026-08-07",
 "call": {
  "ref": "NIFTYAUG2026",
  "claim": "Nifty 50 August 2026 monthly close prints within 3 per cent of the July 2026 close of 24383.60",
  "band": [
   23652.09,
   25115.11
  ],
  "central": 24383.6,
  "window_start": "2026-08-07",
  "window_end": "2026-08-31",
  "falsifier": "any August 2026 monthly close outside 23652.09 to 25115.11, either side, fires FAILED",
  "probability": 0.6,
  "base_rate": 0.522,
  "register": "headline",
  "reconcile_by": "2026-09-03",
  "reference": "NSE official Nifty 50 end-of-day close on the final NSE trading session of August 2026",
  "honesty_note": "A 6 per cent total band on a monthly index close is a wide target. The stated probability is high because the band is generous, not because the call is bold."
 },
 "status": "met",
 "reconciled_at": "2026-09-11",
 "result": "MET. Nifty 50 closed August 2026 at 24,080.40 against a July close of 24,383.60, a move of minus 1.24 per cent, inside the 23,652.09 to 25,115.11 band.",
 "reconciliation_notes": "Third consecutive month inside the band on this instrument after June at plus 1.35 and July at plus 2.17 per cent."
}