{ "source": "Tempora Research forward-call register", "methodology": "https://www.tempora.ltd/findings/falsifiable-astrology", "tracker_url": "https://www.tempora.ltd/tracker", "exported": "2026-05-11", "calls": [ { "ref": "014", "title": "Nifty 50 caution-and-recovery weeks Jul\u2013Sep 2026", "domain": "Markets", "window_start": "2026-07-15", "window_end": "2026-09-30", "target_date": "2026-08-03", "natals": {}, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "panchang_verification", "_note": "Article uses NO natal charts \u2014 pure panchang/transit composite. Diagnostic = verify rikta tithi, eclipse corridor dates, Mercury retrograde, planetary stations match the article's claims for the four flagged weeks (2026-07-20, 2026-08-03, 2026-08-31, 2026-09-14).", "flagged_weeks": [ "2026-07-20", "2026-08-03", "2026-08-31", "2026-09-14" ], "_falsifier_quote": "Primary: If 0 of 4 windows show a Nifty 50 turning point (>2% reversal sustained for 5+ sessions) within \u00b15 trading days of the listed week, the v3 calibrated weights are invalidated. Secondary: If all 4 windows resolve as low-volatility (Nifty range <1.5% over the \u00b15-day window), the volatility-amplifier component is invalidated.", "backtest_n": 66, "backtest_period": "2005-01-01 to 2024-12-31" } }, { "ref": "035", "title": "March 2026 double-eclipse Nifty reversal + banking event", "domain": "Markets", "window_start": "2026-03-14", "window_end": "2026-04-30", "target_date": "2026-03-14", "natals": { "india": "india_1947" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "resolved_met_with_mechanism_correction", "_resolved": true, "_resolved_status": "MET on outcome (Nifty 2.85% drop 9 March + rupee crisis to ~93.98/USD), mechanism wrong on 3 specifics (eclipse dates, signs, axis). See article Section 2 + workings_paper_035_eclipse_nifty.md." } }, { "ref": "042", "title": "Gold peak 20\u201345% above Jun-2025 baseline by Sep 2026", "domain": "Markets", "window_start": "2025-06-01", "window_end": "2026-09-30", "target_date": "2026-05-05", "natals": {}, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "transit_only_plus_market_data", "expected_jupiter_transit": "Jupiter in Cancer (exaltation) Jun 2025 \u2013 Jun 2026; transit entry point is the baseline anchor", "no_natal_used": true, "_falsifier_quote": "20\u201345% peak above 1 June 2025 baseline by 30 September 2026 (tracker says LBMA AM USD fix; article body says London PM Fix \u2014 price-source mismatch flagged)", "tracker_window_extension": "Article's stated window: Jun 2025 \u2013 Jun 2026. Tracker extends to Sep 2026 (3 months past article).", "backtest_n_named_periods": 3, "named_precedents": [ "1954-55 Cancer-Jupiter", "1966-67 Cancer-Jupiter", "2002-03 Cancer-Jupiter" ] } }, { "ref": "022", "title": "Indian unicorn IPO Muhurta 2025\u20132027", "domain": "Markets", "window_start": "2025-04-01", "window_end": "2027-12-31", "target_date": "2026-05-05", "natals": {}, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "per_ipo_listing_chart_plus_market_data", "_note": "Per-IPO listing-moment charts only; no national chart used. Diagnostic = collect actual Indian unicorn IPO listing dates 2025-2027 + 12-month post-listing returns vs Nifty.", "expected_listing_lagna": "Cancer, Taurus, or Libra rising at IPO open bell", "expected_mercury_direction": "Mercury direct (not retrograde, combust, or in 6/8/12 from lagna)", "expected_tithi": "non-Rikta (NOT 4th, 9th, 14th lunar day; not within 6 hours of new/full moon)", "high_band_threshold_pp": 15, "low_band_threshold_pp": 10, "selection_bias_threshold_pp": 20, "metric_window_switch_flag": "Article backtest used 3-year returns; forward falsifier uses 12-month median. Inconsistency flagged.", "backtest_n": 73, "backtest_p_value": 0.027 } }, { "ref": "029", "title": "India Rahu mahadasha three-phase forecast 2024\u20132031", "domain": "Macro", "window_start": "2026-04-01", "window_end": "2031-12-31", "target_date": "2026-05-05", "natals": { "india": "india_1947" }, "original_premises": { "india": { "expected_mahadasha": "Rahu", "_note": "Article claims India is in Rahu mahadasha across 2024\u20132031 forecast window. Verified HOLD on first audit pass." } } }, { "ref": "019", "title": "Taiwan Strait stress event Feb\u2013Nov 2026", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2026-02-01", "window_end": "2026-12-31", "target_date": "2026-08-01", "natals": {}, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "transit_cycle_correlation_no_chart", "_critical_flag_1": "Article uses NO natal charts \u2014 pure transit-cycle correlation argument. PRC 1949 not invoked.", "_critical_flag_2": "Article has NO formal falsifier section. Tracker's PLA/TSMC/hotline thresholds were added externally \u2014 not in published text.", "_critical_flag_3": "Vocabulary mixes tropical (Saturn-Neptune in Aries) and sidereal (Rahu, mahadasha) \u2014 undeclared mixed convention.", "load_bearing_transit": "Saturn-Neptune conjunction in Aries (Feb-Nov 2026) \u2014 highest-signal window of 2026-2030", "counter_signal": "Jupiter in Cancer exaltation through June 2026 (de-escalation read)", "backtest_n": 5, "self_acknowledged_caveat": "n=5 is very small. Five crises over 75 years cannot support strong statistical inference. Retroactive pattern-fitting is a significant risk.", "historical_hit_rate": "83%", "chance_baseline": "15%" } }, { "ref": "044", "title": "Russia\u2013Ukraine framework agreement Q3 2026 / Q1 2027", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2026-07-01", "window_end": "2027-03-31", "target_date": "2026-09-15", "natals": { "russia": "russia_1991_jun", "ukraine": "ukraine_1991" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "natal_split_with_dasha_claim", "_critical_flag_1": "Article uses 12 June 1991 Russia Sovereignty Declaration chart, NOT canonical 25 December 1991 Russian Federation chart. Two Russia natals active across corpus (article 054 uses canonical Dec 1991).", "_critical_flag_2": "Article body says 'all four cases within 14 months'; findings box says '3 of 4 within \u00b118 months' \u2014 internal inconsistency.", "_critical_flag_3": "'Framework agreement' undefined in article; tracker's tighter falsifier (ceasefire/prisoner-exchange/border-recognition) added externally.", "expected_russia_mahadasha": "Saturn (2017-2036), 8th-house Saturn natally", "expected_simultaneity": "Russia + Ukraine simultaneously enter Saturn-governed sub-periods Q3 2026 and Q1 2027", "expected_transits": [ "Transit Saturn Pisces sextile Russia natal Saturn mid-2026", "Transit Jupiter Cancer aspecting Ukraine natal Moon", "Saturn-Jupiter trine Q1 2027" ], "comparable_n": 4, "comparable_cases": [ "Korean armistice 1953", "Iran-Iraq ceasefire 1988", "First Gulf War 1991", "First Chechen ceasefire 1996" ] } }, { "ref": "049", "title": "US 2028 election \u2014 does NOT show 2020 disruption signature", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2028-11-01", "window_end": "2029-01-31", "target_date": "2028-11-07", "natals": {}, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "null_prediction_mundane_jupiter_saturn", "_critical_flag_1": "Article uses NO US natal \u2014 pure Jupiter-Saturn synodic cycle. Sign labels appear tropical (2020 J-S conj called 'Aquarius') despite Tempora canonical = sidereal True Pushya Paksha. Ayanamsa unstated.", "call_type": "NULL \u2014 predicting absence of 2020 disruption signature in 2028", "disruption_signature": [ "incumbent-party loss", "electoral-college contested past Dec 2028", "protracted transition crisis past 20 Jan 2029" ], "signature_logic": "2020 J-S conjunction window was active in 2020; 2028 has no J-S conjunction (next is 2040), so signature is structurally absent.", "backtest_n": "8 J-S conjunction election years 1840-2020; 8/8 disrupted", "_falsifier_quote": "If 2028 produces ALL of: (i) incumbent-party loss, (ii) electoral-college result contested in courts past December 2028, (iii) protracted transition crisis past 20 January 2029, the structural-disruption call fails." } }, { "ref": "053", "title": "India major event Nov 2027 \u2013 Feb 2028", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2027-11-01", "window_end": "2028-02-28", "target_date": "2027-12-15", "natals": { "india": "india_1947" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "stellium_axis_activation", "_note": "Methodologically distinct from Bengal \u2014 uses stellium-axis-activation rule (Ketu over Cancer stellium + Mars-Rahu Angarak Yoga in Capricorn opposing). Modi natal NOT used.", "india": { "expected_mahadasha": "Rahu", "expected_antardasha": "Rahu", "_note": "Triple-Rahu claim \u2014 pratyantara not separately verified by tool" }, "load_bearing_transits": [ "Ketu in Cancer over 5-planet stellium (Sun, Moon, Mars, Mercury, Venus)", "Rahu in Capricorn", "Mars-Rahu Angarak Yoga in Capricorn opposing Cancer stellium" ], "lift_ratios": { "malefic_opp_stellium": 1.88, "rahu_over_stellium": 1.15 }, "self_acknowledged": "Marginal alone. India lift ratios lower than Russia.", "backtest_n": 2, "named_analogues": [ "2001-2002 (Parliament attack)", "2019-2020 (Pulwama, Modi re-election, COVID)" ], "india_birth_time_disclosed_in_article": false } }, { "ref": "054", "title": "Russia sudden consequential action Dec 2027 \u2013 May 2028", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2027-12-01", "window_end": "2028-05-31", "target_date": "2028-02-15", "natals": { "russia": "russia_1991" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "transit_only_canonical_chart", "_note": "Uses CANONICAL Russia chart (Dec 25 1991 Federation founding) \u2713. Clean canonical match.", "russia": { "expected_mahadasha": null, "_note": "No dasha claim \u2014 pure transit" }, "load_bearing_transits": [ "Mars-Rahu Angarak Yoga (transit Mars conj transit Rahu, Feb 2028 exact)", "Rahu return (18.6yr nodal cycle, mid-2028)" ], "lifts": { "mars_rahu": 5.46, "rahu_return": 3.01 }, "lift_rank": "5.46\u00d7 is the highest single-signal lift in Tempora library across 6 charts", "confidence_tier": "Elevated", "backtest_n": 3, "named_precedents": [ "1998 Russian default", "2014 Maidan/Crimea", "2022 Ukraine invasion" ], "self_acknowledged": "Closer to necessary than sufficient condition. High lift partly because base rate is low.", "_falsifier_quote": "Sudden in form (not gradual). Visible to Western media within days. Must involve: military escalation on/beyond Russian borders OR formal treaty break OR abrupt leadership change at HoS/PM/defense level OR sanctions counter-action of equivalent gravity. Falsifier conditions: no qualifying event \u00b190d of 2028-02-28, OR events are gradual continuations, OR events are domestic-only." } }, { "ref": "055", "title": "US significant event Sep 2029 \u2013 Mar 2030", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2029-09-01", "window_end": "2030-03-01", "target_date": "2029-12-01", "natals": { "usa": "usa_1776" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "stellium_axis_activation_with_dasha", "_note": "Uses CANONICAL Sibly chart \u2713. 3-level dasha specificity (Bengal failure-mode risk).", "usa": { "expected_mahadasha": "Venus", "expected_antardasha": "Rahu", "expected_pratyantara": "Mars", "_note": "3-level dasha needs verification \u2014 Bengal failure mode applies" }, "load_bearing_transits": [ "Ketu over Gemini stellium (Sun, Mars, Jupiter, Venus in Gemini)", "Malefic in Sagittarius opposing Gemini stellium", "Saturn approaching natal Moon" ], "lifts": { "rahu_over_stellium": 2.45, "malefic_opp_stellium": 2.42, "saturn_near_moon": 2.2, "mean": 2.36 }, "convergence_n_prior": 0, "self_acknowledged": "First three-signal convergence on this chart in the 30-year calibration dataset.", "named_analogues": [ "9/11 Sep 2001", "Iraq War opening early 2003" ] } }, { "ref": "056", "title": "UK constitutional/leadership event Dec 2026 \u2013 Jun 2027", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2026-12-01", "window_end": "2027-06-15", "target_date": "2027-03-15", "natals": { "uk": "uk_1801" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "single_transit_with_dasha", "_note": "Article body did NOT explicitly state UK chart birth data \u2014 defers to 'Tempora's chart library'. Canonical UK 1801 declared 2026-05-05.", "uk": { "expected_mahadasha": "Saturn", "expected_antardasha": "Saturn", "_note": "Doubly-resonant Saturn MD/AD claim \u2014 Bengal failure-mode risk" }, "load_bearing_transit": "Saturn opposing natal Moon, exact 15 March 2027 (6\u00b0 approach Dec 2026 \u2192 6\u00b0 separation Jun 2027)", "secondary": "Jupiter vedha tightens April 2027", "lift": 4.21, "lift_rank": "second-highest single-signal in Tempora library", "confidence_tier": "High", "backtest_n": "essentially 1 prior full Saturn-Moon cycle (29.5yr cadence, 30yr backtest window)", "named_precedents": [ "Brexit referendum Jun 2016", "QEII death Sep 2022" ], "self_acknowledged": "Absolute count of prior cycles is small." } }, { "ref": "057", "title": "China significant event Jun\u2013Dec 2028", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2028-06-01", "window_end": "2028-12-15", "target_date": "2028-09-15", "natals": { "china": "prc_1949" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "single_transit_with_dasha", "_note": "Article body did NOT explicitly state PRC chart birth data \u2014 defers to 'Tempora's chart library'. Canonical PRC chart used (Moon-in-Scorpio claim consistent with Oct 1 1949 15:01).", "china": { "expected_mahadasha": "Rahu", "expected_antardasha": "Jupiter", "_note": "Specific MD-AD claim \u2014 needs canonical verification" }, "load_bearing_transit": "Saturn conjunct natal Moon in Scorpio, peak 15 Sep 2028 (Jun 2028 - Dec 2028 6\u00b0 orb window)", "lift": 2.07, "_note_lift": "Only positively-calibrated signal on China chart in Tempora's 9-signature scan", "confidence_tier": "Moderate", "backtest_n": 4, "named_precedents": [ "Sichuan earthquake May 2008", "Wuhan lockdown / COVID Jan-Mar 2020" ], "_unnamed_calibration_events": 2, "small_sample_caveat_explicit": true } }, { "ref": "058", "title": "Pakistan dual disruption windows Oct 2026 + Jun 2028", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2026-07-01", "window_end": "2028-09-30", "target_date": "2026-10-15", "natals": { "pakistan": "pakistan_1947" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "dual_window_dasha_plus_transits", "_note": "Uses True Pushya Paksha (matches canonical) + Whole Sign houses. Canonical Pakistan natal added 2026-05-05. Window-1 dasha used as primary verification (target_date = 2026-10-15).", "pakistan": { "expected_mahadasha": "Moon", "expected_antardasha": "Saturn", "_note": "Window 1 dasha (Oct 2026). Window 2 dasha (Mars MD / Venus AD) needs separate verification at 2028-06-15." }, "window_1": { "center": "2026-10-15", "pakistan": { "expected_mahadasha": "Moon", "expected_antardasha": "Saturn" }, "primary_transit": "Rahu return", "secondary_transit": "Rahu over stellium" }, "window_2": { "center": "2028-06-15", "pakistan": { "expected_mahadasha": "Mars", "expected_antardasha": "Venus" }, "primary_transit": "Rahu return", "secondary_transit": "Malefic opposition stellium" }, "primary_lift": 2.51, "lift_rank": "third-strongest single-signal in Tempora library (after Russia 5.46 and 3.01)", "confidence_tier": "Moderate", "named_precedents_enumerated": false, "backtest_caveat": "Note #006 references Pakistan as historically reactive to nodal axis changes WITHOUT enumerating specific named events" } }, { "ref": "016", "title": "India 2029 election structural change", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2029-01-01", "window_end": "2030-06-30", "target_date": "2029-05-01", "natals": {}, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "mundane_jupiter_saturn_synodic_no_chart", "_note": "Pure mundane J-S synodic cycle. NO Modi natal, NO India 1947 invoked. Bengal failure mode does not apply.", "_critical_flag_1": "Ayanamsa unstated. Sign attributions mixed \u2014 some sidereal (2020 J-S conj in Capricorn matches sidereal), some look tropical-leaning.", "_critical_flag_2": "No formal falsifier block \u2014 soft 'elevated probability of structural inflection' framing only.", "framework": "2029 election falls 12-18 months before 2030-2031 J-S opposition; \u00b114-month aspect window", "backtest_n": 22, "backtest_period": "1947-2024 (78 years, 22 general elections)", "hit_rate": "86% (19 of 22 inflection-within-window)", "monte_carlo": { "permutations": 1800, "chance_p": 0.0028 }, "inflection_criteria": [ "change of ruling party", "seat swing >15%", "first-time coalition majority", "emergency/constitutional departure" ], "modi_natal_used": false } }, { "ref": "RU2027", "title": "Russia-Ukraine resolution-shaped event Q3 2027", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2027-08-01", "window_end": "2027-10-15", "target_date": "2027-09-15", "natals": { "russia": "russia_1991" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "natal_with_dasha_plus_transits", "extends": "044", "_falsifier_quote": "Wrong if none of these three conditions is met between 1 August 2027 and 15 October 2027 inclusive: (1) written ceasefire or armistice signed by both Moscow and Kyiv at state level and registered with UN/OSCE/ICRC; (2) documented territorial settlement registered with UN or signed by both governments addressing border or sovereignty status of contested territory in writing; (3) head-of-state-level leadership change in either Moscow or Kyiv (resignation, removal, incapacitation or replacement of sitting president). If none of these by 23:59 UTC 15 October 2027, the call fails. Continued active hostilities through 16 October 2027 with no signed document and no leadership change is the unambiguous failure condition.", "reconciliation_commitment": "Tempora publishes reconciliation within 30 days of window close, by 14 November 2027 at latest, regardless of result.", "supporting_article": "/findings/russia-ukraine-resolution-q3-2027.html" } }, { "ref": "IRAN2027", "title": "Iran tension window April-September 2027 (Saturn Aries ingress on 1979 chart)", "domain": "Geopolitics", "window_start": "2027-04-01", "window_end": "2027-09-30", "target_date": "2027-05-23", "natals": { "iran": "iran_1979" }, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "natal_with_transits_uncalibrated", "_falsifier_quote": "Wrong if none of these three conditions occurs between 1 April 2027 and 30 September 2027 inclusive: (1) leadership change at Supreme Leader, President of the Islamic Republic, or Speaker of the Majlis (resignation, removal, incapacitation, replacement or natural transition documented in major public news); (2) military escalation crossing a documented threshold, defined as direct kinetic strikes between Iran and Israel or Saudi Arabia or the United States claimed publicly by either side and reported in major international wire services, OR a formal IRGC mobilization announcement made by an official Iranian state body inside the window; (3) documented economic event meeting one of three thresholds: rial collapse below 1,500,000 IRR per US dollar on open-market rate at any point inside the window, formal sovereign debt default declared by Iran or by an international body inside the window, or oil-export disruption recorded at more than 30 per cent below the 12-month rolling baseline preceding the window per IEA monthly oil reports. If none of these by 23:59 UTC 30 September 2027, the call fails.", "reconciliation_commitment": "Tempora publishes reconciliation within 30 days of window close, by 30 October 2027 at latest, regardless of result.", "supporting_article": "/findings/iran-tension-march-2027.html", "saturn_aries_ingress_date_true_pushya_paksha": "2027-05-23", "natal_chart_caveat": "Iran 1979 chart is not part of the calibrated six-chart library. No published lift figure for Saturn-natal-Sun on this chart. Call sits in lower-confidence tier. Time uncertainty plus or minus 60 minutes documented in tools/natals/iran_1979.json; lagna/Moon-house attribution sensitive to time, slow-mover sign placements robust.", "_uncalibrated": true } }, { "ref": "GOLD2027", "title": "Gold post-Jupiter-Cancer-exit 3-month average band Q4 2027", "domain": "Markets", "window_start": "2027-10-01", "window_end": "2027-12-31", "target_date": "2027-11-15", "natals": {}, "original_premises": { "audit_shape": "transit_only_band_call", "corrects": "042", "_falsifier_quote": "Wrong if either: (a) UNDERSHOOT - LBMA AM USD gold-fix rolling 3-month average for 1 Oct - 31 Dec 2027 lands below 30% above 1 June 2025 baseline (below approximately 4,355 USD per ounce); (b) OVERSHOOT - same rolling average lands above 70% above baseline (above approximately 5,695 USD per ounce). Pass requires the rolling 3-month average inside the 4,355 to 5,695 USD per ounce band. The single number computed from LBMA AM USD daily prints across October, November and December 2027 is the pass-fail input.", "reconciliation_commitment": "Tempora publishes reconciliation within 30 days of window close, by 30 January 2028 at latest, regardless of result.", "corrects_042_lesson": "Article 042 failed on overshoot above 45% upper bound (gold peaked +62-66% above baseline Jan 2026). New call uses BOTH bounds (30-70%), 25 percentage points wider on upside. Lower bound calibrated against 1996 Jupiter-Cancer-exit analog (deepest precedent ~34% peak-to-trough). Upper bound preserves headroom for Leo-Jupiter continuation while remaining a callable threshold.", "supporting_article": "/findings/gold-2027-jupiter-exit-cancer.html", "_no_natal": true } } ] }