Dataset · machine-readable receipt

Nifty 2026: four caution windows

Identifier
article_014_nifty_2026
Horizon
2026-07-15 → 2026-09-30
Published
2026-04-15
Generated
2026-04-27T11:41:52.422Z
Schema version
v2
Source article
article_014_markets_nifty
Central call

Four caution-and-recovery windows in Nifty 50 between July and September 2026, with explicit caution score and recovery score on each date.

Methodology

Vimshottari MD→AD→PD telescoped against Lahiri-mean Sun-Moon panchang on each window date, BSE 1875 + NSE 1994 + India 1947 transit overlay, Jupiter–Saturn meso-cycle position, and historical lift over 66 turning points (2005–2024) in Nifty 50 daily closes.

Lookback basis

Sample n=66 Nifty inflection days (>3% absolute close-to-close move within 5 trading days) 2005-01-01 to 2024-12-31. For each inflection day the panchang (tithi/nakshatra/yoga/karana), Moon-rashi, Mercury combust/retrograde state, and active Vimshottari MD/AD on the BSE 1875 chart were tabulated. A logistic lift was fit on five panchang signatures: rikta tithi, Krishna Paksha 13/14, retrograde Mercury, Moon in 8th from BSE lagna, and Saturn aspect on Mercury. The lift on caution days was 1.62× baseline; lift on the four 2026 windows below ranges 1.4–2.1×.

Flagged windows

DateTypeCautionRecoveryNote
2026-07-20 caution-recovery 0.78 0.42 Mercury combust + rikta tithi
2026-08-03 caution-recovery 0.71 0.55 Krishna Paksha 13, Saturn aspect tightening
2026-08-31 recovery 0.34 0.81 Jupiter Cancer last degree, supportive panchang
2026-09-14 caution-recovery 0.66 0.48 Eclipse pre-shadow, Mercury retrograde
Falsifier (the call fails if…)

If none of the four flagged dates produces an intraday or T+5 absolute close move >2% on Nifty 50, OR if the worst single-day move during 2026-07-15 to 2026-09-30 falls on a date NOT in the flagged set, the model is wrong. Reconciliation pulls NSE Nifty 50 daily close from publicly available history.

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