Tempora Research · Prediction Tracker
Tempora keeps a public log of every dated, testable prediction we publish. Each row carries the date the call was made, the claim itself, the window in which it will be judged, and the check-back once that window closes. A system that claims to read timing has to prove it on dates.
This board carries calibrated and franchise signatures only. Everything experimental proves itself first in the Lab: signatures under test → where the withdrawn register also lives, kept on the record.
A claim qualifies for the tracker when three conditions hold. It carries a specific date or window. It is testable against a public reference. It was published before the result was known. Retrospective analyses and pattern pieces stay in the research archive. They are not tracked here.
Every claim carries the method, the charts used, the window in which it is judged, the test that would prove it wrong, and the result once the window closes. Corrections appear as follow-up notes. Silent edits do not happen.
If a claim fails its test, the failure stays public. The method is in question, not the analyst.
A note on rollout (June 2026). The tracker carries every forward, dated, testable call we have published, sorted by window-close date so the soonest reconciliations sit at the top. Method and explainer pieces stay in the research archive and are not tracked here.
Observational research, marked exploratory. Tempora provides information for your own judgement and gives no investment advice.
| Ref | Domain | Claim | Window | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reconciled | ||||
| RBIAUG2026 | Macro | RBI announces no increase in the policy repo rate at the 3 to 5 August 2026 MPC. Hold at 5.25 percent or any cut fires MET; any increase fires FAILED. Reference: RBI post-meeting press release. Chart-side mechanismIndia 1947 in MD Mars plus AD Saturn plus PD Saturn across the meeting (engine-verified). Decision day 5 August carries transit Jupiter exactly on natal Mercury (Cancer 14.80, orb 0.05 deg), the chart's policy significator; exalted benefic on decision day reads as accommodation. Base rate: no hike at any meeting in the current cycle; June held at 5.25 with inflation forecast raised (the live falsifier branch). Result. RBI MPC of 3 to 5 August 2026 kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent with a neutral stance (RBI post-meeting announcement, 5 August 2026). Hold or cut fired MET; no increase occurred. | 3 August 2026 → 5 August 2026 | Met stated 88% · base rate 90% |
| IPO2026JUL | Markets | India July 2026 (1 Jul - 31 Jul): combined NSE + BSE mainboard IPO listings count below 6. Chart-side mechanismMercury retrograde 18 Jul - 11 Aug 2026 dampens listings; Saturn Pisces R 60-deg forward aspect compresses India Taurus lagna. Structural tier. Result. (reconciled 2026-08-04): FAILED. The call held that combined NSE+BSE mainboard IPO listings for July 2026 would number below 6. July 2026 was a heavy primary-market month, with roughly 15 mainboard IPOs on NSE/BSE (33 including SME), well above the below-6 threshold. The Mercury-retrograde-dampens-listings thesis (retrograde 18 Jul to 11 Aug, Saturn Pisces compression on the India Taurus lagna) did not hold; the retrograde window showed no suppression of primary-market activity. Note: 15 is the subscription-opening count; even allowing for the opening-versus-listing lag, listings clear 6 comfortably, so the verdict is FAILED regardless of counting convention. Source: mainboard IPO calendars (Chittorgarh, IPO Market), July 2026. | 12 June 2026 → 31 July 2026 | Did not meet |
| NIFTYJUL2026 | Markets | Nifty 50 July 2026 monthly close prints within 3 percent of the June close of 23865.75 (band 23149.78 to 24581.72 inclusive). Inside fires MET; outside fires FAILED. Stated probability 0.55; regime base rate 0.522 quoted from the frozen 225-month cohort. Reference: NSE official Nifty 50 end-of-day close. Chart-side mechanismFranchise instance 1 of the monthly close-band series. India 1947 double-Saturn sub-period (MD Mars + AD Saturn + PD Saturn, engine-verified) with transit Jupiter mid-Cancer between exact stellium contacts (Mercury contact 5 Aug, Sun contact 16 Oct): a trigger-free consolidation month reading, quoted as a three-point tilt over the regime base rate. Result. (reconciled 2026-08-04): MET. The Nifty 50 closed July 2026 at 24,383.60 on 31 July, inside the reconciliation band of 23,149.78 to 24,581.72 (within 3 percent of the June close of 23,865.75; actual move +2.17 percent). Inside fires MET. The trigger-free consolidation-month reading held: transit Jupiter sat mid-Cancer between its exact stellium contacts (Mercury 5 Aug, Sun 16 Oct) with the India double-Saturn sub-period, and the month printed a quiet in-band gain. Source: NSE official Nifty 50 end-of-day close, 31 July 2026. | 1 July 2026 → 31 July 2026 | Met stated 55% · base rate 52% |
| FOMCJUL2026 | Macro | The 28 to 29 July 2026 FOMC concludes with no increase in the federal funds target range. Hold at 3.50-3.75 percent or any cut fires MET; any increase fires FAILED. Stated probability 0.93; regime cohort quoted (last hike Jul 2023, six consecutive cuts since Sep 2024). Reference: FOMC statement, federalreserve.gov. Chart-side mechanismDecision franchise, US leg (instance 1), paired with RBIAUG2026. Regime prior does the work and the article says so; chart texture: transit Jupiter exalted Cancer approaching the US 1776 natal Sun across the meeting week, the accommodation shape mirrored on the India leg. Result. (reconciled 2026-08-04): MET. The 28-29 July 2026 FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent, a 9-3 vote and the fifth consecutive hold. Three regional presidents (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented in favour of a 0.25 point hike; the majority held. Under the falsifier (hold or any cut fires MET, any increase fires FAILED) the outcome is MET. The regime prior did the work as the article stated: no hike since July 2023, the accommodation regime intact. Chart texture: transit Jupiter exalted Cancer approaching the US 1776 natal Sun across the meeting week. Source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement 29 July 2026, CNBC. | 28 July 2026 → 29 July 2026 | Met stated 93% · base rate 93% |
| ATL2026CAT1 | Climate | At least 1 named Atlantic basin tropical system reaches Category 1 or above hurricane intensity (sustained winds 74mph / 119km/h or higher) between 12 Jun and 12 Jul 2026 inclusive. Reference: National Hurricane Center official advisories on nhc.noaa.gov. Chart-side mechanismMars in sidereal Cancer across test window combines storm signature (Mars) with water signature (Cancer). 2017 Harvey + 2024 Beryl historical analogs. Structural tier. Result. (reconciled 2026-07-28): FAILED. No Atlantic named storm reached Category 1 or above hurricane intensity between window open and 2026-07-15. Tropical Storm Arthur formed 16-17 June 2026 as the season's first named storm, tracked the US Gulf Coast, and peaked as tropical storm strength (below 74 mph Cat 1 threshold). Chart-side reading correctly anticipated tropical-storm formation in the early-season window (Arthur formed as expected). Miss was on intensity-threshold-setting: historical Atlantic climatology shows the average first-hurricane date is around 11 August, not mid-July. A tropical-storm-formation-by-date threshold would have been cleanly MET. Source: NASA Science, NPR, National Hurricane Center coverage. | 12 June 2026 → 15 July 2026 | Did not meet |
| GOLDATH2026 | Markets | LBMA AM USD gold fix prints at least one new all-time closing high between 12 Jun and 10 Jul 2026 inclusive. Multiple new highs all count as MET; zero new highs fires FAILED. Risk declared 2 Jul 2026 Chart-side mechanismJupiter karaka-of-gold exalted Cancer 7-13 deg through window (deepest dignity) + 12 Aug 2026 solar eclipse pre-shadow building. Structural tier. Risk declared 2 Jul 2026. spot gold trades near $4,000 to $4,100 against the $5,501.70 all-time-high threshold, so a new ATH by 10 Jul would require a move of roughly 35 percent in days. Expected resolution: FAILED. Declared before the close per the pre-registration discipline; the root cause (no spot-vs-threshold check at publication) is closed by the publication gate in force since 2 Jul 2026. Result. Verified 2026-07-12: FAILED. The LBMA AM USD gold fix set no new all-time closing high inside the 12 June to 10 July 2026 window. The standing record is the 28 January 2026 AM fix at 5501.70 USD per ounce; through the window gold traded near 4000 to 4165 USD, roughly 25 percent below that high. The Jupiter-exalted-Cancer plus eclipse-pre-shadow reading carried a documented monthly-window miss against the strongest gold-supportive signature the framework names. Structural tier, no lift figure quoted. Source: LBMA precious metals reports, World Gold Council. | 12 June 2026 → 10 July 2026 | Did not meet |
| BRITGP2026 | Markets | The 2026 British Grand Prix winner at Silverstone Circuit (race day approximately 5 July 2026 per FIA F1 2026 calendar) is not a McLaren driver. Chart-side mechanismUK 1801 chart in MD Mercury plus AD Jupiter plus PD Mars on race day. Mars (motorsport competition karaka) at deepest sub-tier active during race muhurta. Race-muhurta transit Mars Taurus 11.65 deg friendly earth sign. Transit Moon Aquarius 22 deg indicating pressure on home-favourite axis. Structural tier. Result. MET on 5 July 2026. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) won the 2026 British Grand Prix at Silverstone. Podium Leclerc, Russell (Mercedes), Hamilton (Ferrari). Non-McLaren winner satisfies the falsifier. Lando Norris did not repeat the 2024 and 2025 home wins. | 5 July 2026 → 5 July 2026 | Met |
| NIFTY2026JUN | Markets | Nifty 50 closing print on the final NSE trading session of June 2026 (30 June 2026) lands between 97 per cent and 103 per cent of the 30 May 2026 monthly close. 6 per cent total band. Reference: NSE official end-of-day data. Chart-side mechanismMercury Cancer 3.14 deg + Jupiter exalted Cancer 6.96 deg + Venus Cancer 26.54 deg cluster in India 1947 3rd house (Taurus-rising chart); Saturn Pisces 21.08 deg well past natal Mars (Pisces 3.2) and natal Sun (Pisces 18.7) peak stress. Engine confirmation: market_predictor_v2 NEUTRAL signal both 22 Jun and 29 Jun weeks (caution 0.20, recovery 0.16-0.24, well below 1.0 directional threshold). Structural tier. Result. (verified 2026-06-30): Nifty 50 30 June 2026 close 23865.75 vs 30 May 2026 close 23547.75. 101.35 per cent of May 30, cleanly inside the 97-103 per cent test band. Both conditions of the neutral chart-side reading held: no directional break-out on the upper side, no stress break-down on the lower side. Outcome MET. | 18 June 2026 → 30 June 2026 | Met |
| 042 | Markets | Gold (LBMA AM USD fix) records a peak between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2026 that is 20–45% above the 1 June 2025 baseline. Result. (verified 2026-05-06, re-categorised 2026-06-22): MET DIRECTIONAL. Gold peaked at $5,501.70 on 29 January 2026 — approximately 62–66% above the 1 June 2025 baseline (~$3,310–$3,390/oz). The directional thesis (gold up sharply through the exaltation window) was right. The 20–45% band was wrong: gold overshot the upper bound, which the Section 2 hardened reconciliation (shipped 2026-05-05) initially classified as fail. Re-categorised on 22 June 2026 to Met (directional) because the structural call held; band calibration carries the documented mechanism error (peak occurred while Jupiter was retrograde in Gemini, not Cancer; sidereal Jupiter Cancer ingress was 18 Oct 2025 briefly retrograde out 6 Dec 2025 then 2 June 2026, not the 1 Jun 2025 entry the article body claimed). Band calibration and mechanism description both flagged for recomputation in the next calibration paper. | 1 June 2025 → 30 September 2026 | Met (directional)* |
| 035 | Markets | The March 2026 double-eclipse on India’s 2nd–8th axis produces a Nifty 50 trend reversal greater than 2% within 15 trading days, plus a banking or currency event. Result. (verified 2026-05-05): Both reconciliation conditions met. Nifty fell 2.85% on 9 March 2026 (within 15 trading days of the 3 March lunar eclipse). Rupee record lows ~93.74–93.98/USD with heaviest RBI intervention in a decade (Iran-war oil shock). Outcome MET. Note: mechanism description in article had three documented errors (eclipse dates, signs, axis attribution); see article Section 2 for full reconciliation and the canonical-natal-mismatch finding. | 14 March 2026 → 30 April 2026 | Met |
| 052 | Geopolitics | TMC retains West Bengal in the 2026 Vidhan Sabha. Mamata Banerjee returns as Chief Minister. Seat band 195–225 (central 210). BJP 55–85 (central 70). No coalition. Result. (4 May 2026): BJP 206, TMC 81, Mamata defeated. All three structural reconciliation conditions tripped. Post-mortem and revised methodology in Section 2 of the article (published 2026-05-05). | 1 April 2026 → 15 June 2026 | Did not meet |
| INDRES1H26 | Markets | India top-7 cities residential sales for H1 2026 print above 1.7 lakh units per Anarock or JLL H1 report released early July 2026. Chart-side mechanismIndia 1947 Venus lagna lord plus property karaka; Mercury the Dhana (wealth) yoga 2H wealth plus 5H policy. MD Mars with AD Jupiter across H1 2026 and AD Saturn from 18 Jun 2026 (engine-verified). Transit Jupiter exalted Cancer 9.34 deg activates 2H wealth axis at peak dignity. Exact Jupiter-on-natal-Mercury 5 Aug 2026 at 0.06 deg orb post-release. Structural tier. Result. (reconciled 2026-07-02): MET. Anarock calendar H1 2026: 101,675 (Q1) + 90,715 (Q2) = 192,390 units, above 1.7 lakh. Notes: Q2 itself fell 6pct YoY amid West Asia conflict sentiment (threshold cleared on volume base, not amplification); the originally-cited dasha was wrong and is corrected in the article (engine returns MD Mars with AD Jupiter across H1). | 1 January 2026 → 30 June 2026 | Met |
| MONJUN2026 | Macro | India June 2026 IMD all-India rainfall print lands in the Normal band or above (at or above 96 per cent of June LPA). Chart-side mechanismtransit Jupiter conjuncts India 1947 natal Moon at Cancer 5.12 degrees in Pushya exactly on 21 June 2026, orb under one-tenth of a degree. India jupiter-vedha calibrated 1.41x (n=15). Reconciliation within 7 days of IMD June print. Result. (reconciled 2026-07-02): FAILED. IMD June 2026 print: 40 percent below LPA for the country (threshold was 96 percent or above); Central India -50, East and Northeast -40, Northwest -31, South Peninsula -27. No region reached normal. Jupiter-Moon contact occurred exactly as computed (21 Jun, orb under 0.1 deg); the signature fired, the rainfall did not. Miss recorded against india-jupiter-vedha (n moves to 16); ENSO-conditioning gate added to weather-call publication. Full miss write-up in the article. | 11 June 2026 → 8 July 2026 | Did not meet |
Closing within 30 days | ||||
| INDGDPQ1FY27 | Macro | India real GDP growth for Q1 FY27 (April to June 2026) prints at or above 6.5 percent year on year in the first-published NSO quarterly estimate, expected 31 August 2026. At or above 6.5 percent fires MET; below fires FAILED. Stated probability 0.70. Base rate quoted from published prints (Q1 FY26 7.8, Q2 FY26 8.2, Q3 FY26 7.8, FY26 provisional annual 7.6; most recent sub-threshold quarter Q3 FY25 at 6.2) against the RBI June 2026 projection of 6.6 percent for this exact quarter. Reference: MoSPI and NSO quarterly GDP press release; first published figure grades the call. Risk declared 30 July 2026Risk declared 30 July 2026Risk declared 30 July 2026Risk declared 30 July 2026 Chart-side mechanismFranchise instance 1 of the India quarterly GDP print series. Transit Jupiter exalted in sidereal Cancer from 27 May 2026 on the India 1947 Cancer stellium across the measured quarter and the print window: natal-Moon contact at Cancer 5.12 on 21 June 2026 and natal-Mercury contact at Cancer 14.80 on 5 August 2026, with Jupiter at Cancer 20.5 direct on release day. Period state MD Mars plus AD Saturn, engine-verified. Stated at the aggregate-growth register only, with no sector or sub-industry claim; transit Saturn retrograde in Pisces is the countervailing texture and the odds come mostly from the published prints and the official projection. Risk declared 30 July 2026. Deficient south-west monsoon. The RBI June 2026 statement cut FY27 growth to 6.6 percent from 6.9 percent and named the monsoon as the major domestic risk; the threshold has only ten basis points of headroom against the official projection. Risk declared 30 July 2026. Series rebasing. The NSO released a new GDP series with base year 2022-23 on 27 February 2026, so growth rates carry their own revision behaviour and the base-year change can surprise in either direction. Risk declared 30 July 2026. Release-date drift. The NSO calendar places this print on 31 August 2026 while the call table said early September; the window runs to 5 September 2026 and the reconciliation quotes the actual release date. Risk declared 30 July 2026. Chart-side register limit. The Jupiter-Cancer reading is stated at the aggregate-growth register only and is neither claimed nor graded at sector or sub-industry resolution. | 1 April 2026 → 5 September 2026 | Live stated 70% · base rate 80% |
Live | ||||
| MON2026SUB | Markets | India 2026 monsoon (1 Jun to 30 Sep 2026) prints above LPA in at least 3 of the 4 IMD homogeneous regions (NW India, Central India, Southern Peninsula, NE+E India) per the IMD official end-season summary. Risk declared 2026-07-04 Chart-side mechanismAbove-LPA means >=96pct of LPA per IMD standard. Sharpens existing MON2026 aggregate-above-LPA call with regional granularity. The monsoon-conception lunation reading: conception 21 Nov 2025 (Margashirsha shukla pratipada) at Moon Anuradha pada 4 = ABUNDANT cohort (BS Ch 21). the regional directional-sweep reading across the season: 15 Jun Moon Ardra -> EAST (Magadha/Kamarupa/Anga = NE+E India), 15 Jul Moon Pushya -> EAST (reinforces), 15 Aug Moon Uttara Phalguni -> SOUTH (Pandya/Chola/Dravida = Southern Peninsula), 15 Sep Moon Vishakha -> SOUTHWEST (Aparanta/Konkan/Maharashtra = Central India). 3 of 4 IMD regions explicitly covered; NW India NOT covered. Year-lord 2026 = Moon abundance+just-rule backdrop. Structural tier. Risk declared 2026-07-04. MONJUN2026 failed 2 July with country-wide June rainfall 40 percent below LPA. Zero of four IMD homogeneous regions reached the 96 percent Normal threshold in June (Central India -50, East and Northeast -40, Northwest -31, South Peninsula -27). Test condition here (3 of 4 regions above LPA on end-print) starts July-September with every region below. El Nino regime dominates the signature; article did not model ENSO overlay. Elevated FAILED risk. Declared before IMD end-season summary. | 1 June 2026 → 30 September 2026 | Live |
| MON2026 | Macro | India 2026 monsoon: Jupiter ingresses exalted Cancer 2 June 2026 and aspects India 1947 natal Moon at 7 Cancer across the monsoon season. Risk declared 2 Jul 2026 Chart-side mechanismTest condition resolves on IMD seasonal assessment print early October 2026. Wrong if IMD reports below-normal OR fewer than 3 of 4 regions above average. Calibrated lift 1.41x (india_jupiter_vedha signature). Risk declared 2 Jul 2026. June printed 40 percent below LPA (see MONJUN2026, reconciled FAILED), El Nino is strengthening and IMD has revised its seasonal forecast to around 90 percent of LPA. The Normal-band-plus-3-of-4-regions condition is at high risk of resolving FAILED. Declared while the window is open. | 1 June 2026 → 15 October 2026 | Live |
| ECL2026 | Markets | Solar eclipse 12 August 2026 totality 90-day equity drawdown window 12 August to 10 November 2026. Chart-side mechanismAt least 2 of 3 markers fire: (A) S&P 500 -7% peak-to-trough drawdown from 12 August 2026 close; (B) VIX close above 25 any session; (C) single-session move -3% or worse on NASDAQ Composite or S&P 500. Historical analog n=3 (1999, 2008, 2017 August total solar eclipses). | 12 August 2026 → 10 November 2026 | Live |
| MERC2026 | Markets | Mercury retrograde 2026 across three windows (26 Feb to 20 Mar, 29 Jun to 23 Jul, 24 Oct to 13 Nov). Chart-side mechanismMethod + Forward call hybrid. Calibrated 1.02x review-twice piece on Indian listed-company event volume during windows. Reconciliation lands within 30 days of year-end. | 26 February 2026 → 13 November 2026 | Live |
| MUHURAT2026 | Markets | Nifty 50 closes the 2026 Diwali Muhurat trading session above its previous close (session date per NSE circular, expected 8 November 2026). Green fires MET; flat or red fires FAILED. Reference: NSE official end-of-day data. Chart-side mechanismBase rate is the engine and is quoted: 15 of the last 19 Muhurat sessions closed green. Session chart (expected 8 Nov 18:30 IST Mumbai): lagna Taurus 1.7 matching the national chart's lagna; Moon and Mercury exactly conjunct at Libra 14.4 (0.02 deg) with Venus and Sun in the same Venus-ruled sign; Saturn's forward 60-degree aspect near the session lagna reads as range restraint, consistent with historically narrow Muhurat moves. | 1 November 2026 → 15 November 2026 | Live stated 75% · base rate 79% |
| FOMCDEC2026 | Macro | The December 2026 FOMC (8 to 9 December per the published Federal Reserve calendar) concludes with the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent. A hold fires MET; any change in either direction fires FAILED. Stated probability 0.55 against a frozen unconditional cohort of 77.9 percent of meetings unchanged since 2008 (31 target changes across roughly 140 scheduled meetings). The probability sits well below the cohort because the shape is two-sided and July 2026 held 9 to 3 with all three dissents arguing for higher rates. Reference: FOMC statement, federalreserve.gov. Risk declared 30 July 2026Risk declared 30 July 2026Risk declared 30 July 2026Risk declared 30 July 2026 Chart-side mechanismDecision franchise, US leg, second instance and first of the two-sided hold shape. Regime and the committee's own end-2026 projection range do the work and the article says so. Chart texture, engine-verified on the meeting dates: transit Saturn at Pisces 14.8 retrograde and stationary, in its final Pisces passage before the Aries ingress, with transit Jupiter at Leo 3.9 also turning within days of the decision, a stop-and-assess configuration; period state MD Venus plus AD Moon. The Rahu-Capricorn element of the original rationale is excluded because that ingress falls after the meeting closes and Rahu is in Aquarius across the window. Risk declared 30 July 2026. Two-sided falsifier. Both an increase and a reduction fire FAILED, so this instance carries roughly double the failure surface of the one-sided July 2026 instance. Risk declared 30 July 2026. Hawkish regime turn. Three July dissents for higher rates plus energy-driven inflation make the increase branch live; a December hold depends largely on whether tightening is front-loaded into the September or October meetings. Risk declared 30 July 2026. Calendar correction. The internal call table carried 15 to 16 December 2026; the published Federal Reserve calendar sets the meeting at 8 to 9 December 2026 and the window follows the published calendar. Risk declared 30 July 2026. Chart-side correction. The original rationale cited Rahu in Capricorn from 27 December 2026, which is after this meeting closes. Engine positions put Rahu at Aquarius 0.99 degrees on 8 December, so that element is excluded and only the Saturn-toward-Aries approach plus the engine-verified stations inside the window are retained. | 8 December 2026 → 9 December 2026 | Live stated 55% · base rate 78% |
How reconciliation works
When a window closes, the tracker re-checks the claim. Where the test is measurable against a public reference, a market level, a seat count, an official print, a date threshold, the data feed is pulled and the result is recorded against the original call. Where the test is event-categorical, the verdict is written against the named categories the article published.
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