Fed December 2026: the target range finishes the year unchanged.
The decision franchise, US leg, second instance. The July meeting held the range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for the fifth consecutive time on a 9 to 3 vote, with all three dissents arguing for higher rates. That vote is why this instance carries a lower stated probability than the July one and says so in its own claim text.
Stated probability: 0.55. Base rate, from the frozen cohort (FRED daily target series, December 2008 to July 2026): 31 target changes across roughly 140 scheduled meetings, so 77.9 percent of meetings in the span concluded with the range unchanged. The stated probability sits well below that unconditional figure for reasons declared up front. The July 2026 meeting drew three dissents from regional presidents arguing for higher rates, the first time since September 2016 that three policymakers dissented in the same direction. Oil above 100 dollars a barrel has kept inflation elevated against the 2 percent goal. Most officials now put the end-2026 rate between 3.6 and 4.1 percent, which implies roughly one increase across the three remaining meetings of the year, and futures pricing through early July had that increase landing in September with another possible in December. If a move arrives in September or October, December holds. If the committee waits, December is the move. Calibration tier: franchise, cohort-building; no lift claimed. Reconciliation by 11 December 2026.
Meeting dates, on the record
The Federal Reserve's published 2026 calendar sets the December meeting at 8 to 9 December 2026. Tempora's internal call table carried it as 15 to 16 December, and the calendar is the authority, so the window here runs 8 to 9 December and the correction is recorded rather than quietly absorbed. The test condition is the December 2026 scheduled meeting whichever calendar dates it finally carries, and the reconciliation quotes the statement date.
The call, walked through
The July decision is the pivot for this instance. The committee held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent for a fifth consecutive meeting, and the vote split 9 to 3 with Cleveland, Minneapolis and Dallas all dissenting for higher rates. Economic activity was described as expanding at a solid pace with inflation still elevated relative to the 2 percent goal, and energy prices have pushed the near-term inflation path higher. The unconditional cohort figure of 77.9 percent would argue for a probability up near the July instance's 0.93. The regime argues the other way, and the arithmetic of the committee's own projections is the cleanest version of that argument: an end-2026 range of 3.6 to 4.1 percent implies about one increase spread across three remaining meetings, which makes December a live candidate for the move rather than a formality.
So this instance publishes at 0.55, a little above a coin and far below the unconditional base rate. The honest reading is that a December hold depends mostly on whether the committee front-loads its tightening into September or October. That dependency is stated here before the September meeting rather than explained afterwards.
Chart-side mechanism, corrected
One correction first, because the original rationale for this call was wrong on the sky. That rationale cited Rahu in Capricorn as part of an institutional-conservatism signature. Rahu enters sidereal Capricorn on 27 December 2026 under True Pushya Paksha, which is eighteen days after this meeting closes. On the meeting dates the engine puts Rahu at Aquarius 0.99 degrees, and it is still in Aquarius on 15 and 16 December as well, so the Capricorn ingress cannot support this call on either candidate calendar. It is excluded from the mechanism and the exclusion is on the record here and in the receipt.
What is genuinely in the sky across 8 and 9 December 2026, engine-verified on the US 1776 chart: transit Saturn sits at Pisces 14.83 degrees retrograde and stations direct on 11 December, two days after the meeting closes. This is Saturn's final passage through Pisces before its Aries ingress on 23 May 2027, and a stationary Saturn is the classical restraint signature, a planet holding its degree rather than covering ground. Transit Jupiter sits at Leo 3.92 degrees and stations retrograde on 13 December, four days the other side of the decision. Two slow planets turning within days on either side of a policy meeting reads as a stop-and-assess configuration. The period state on the US chart is MD Venus plus AD Moon, engine-verified, with AD Moon running from 10 August 2026.
The limitation belongs in the same paragraph as the signal. Tempora's calibrated table carries no frozen lift figure for a stationary-Saturn-on-policy-decision signature, so nothing here is quoted as a measured edge. The cohort base rate and the committee's own projections do the real work on this call, and the chart layer is texture on top of them. The Saturn-toward-Aries approach that the original rationale named does hold up; the nodal half of it does not.
Test condition and falsifier
The falsifier as written in the call table: FOMC 15-16 Dec 2026 concludes with fed funds target range unchanged (no cut, no hike) fires MET. Operationally, against the published calendar: MET if the statement from the 8 to 9 December 2026 meeting leaves the target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent; FAILED if the statement announces any increase or any reduction. There is no partial outcome and no interpretation step. Both failure branches are live and both are named. An increase is the branch the July dissents and the energy-price path point at. A cut is the branch a sharp growth or labour-market deterioration inside the autumn would open. This is a two-sided falsifier, which is why the probability here is 0.55 while the July instance, which only had to avoid a hike, sat at 0.93.
The series
Eight scheduled meetings a year, each published before the meeting and graded within days of the statement, alongside the RBI leg in India. The July instance tested a one-sided condition and this one tests a two-sided condition, and the tracker records both against the same cohort so the series shows which shapes the framework can actually price.
Frequently asked
What is the Fed December 2026 call?
The December 2026 FOMC concludes with the federal funds target range unchanged, no cut and no hike. A hold at 3.50 to 3.75 percent fires MET; any change in either direction fires FAILED. Reference: the FOMC statement on federalreserve.gov. Stated probability 0.55.
Which dates does the December 2026 meeting carry?
The Federal Reserve's published 2026 calendar sets it at 8 to 9 December 2026. Tempora's internal call table carried 15 to 16 December, and the calendar is the authority, so the window runs 8 to 9 December and the correction is recorded on the article and in the receipt.
What does the cohort say?
From the FRED daily target series between December 2008 and July 2026: 31 target changes across roughly 140 scheduled meetings, so 77.9 percent of meetings concluded with the range unchanged. That is the unconditional figure and the stated probability sits well below it.
Why is the stated probability only 0.55?
Because the regime has turned. July 2026 held on a 9 to 3 vote with all three dissents arguing for higher rates, the first three-way same-direction dissent since September 2016, and oil above 100 dollars has kept inflation elevated. Officials put the end-2026 rate at 3.6 to 4.1 percent, implying about one increase across three remaining meetings. A December hold depends largely on whether that increase lands in September or October instead.
What is the chart-side mechanism, and what was corrected?
The original rationale cited Rahu in Capricorn. Rahu enters Capricorn on 27 December 2026, after this meeting closes, and sits at Aquarius 0.99 degrees on the meeting dates, so that element is excluded. What does hold: transit Saturn at Pisces 14.83 retrograde stations direct on 11 December, two days after the meeting, in its final Pisces passage before the 23 May 2027 Aries ingress, and transit Jupiter stations retrograde on 13 December. Two slow planets turning either side of the decision reads as stop-and-assess. Period state on the US 1776 chart is MD Venus plus AD Moon, engine-verified. No lift figure is quoted for this signature.
What would make this call fail?
Any change to the target range. The increase branch is what the three July dissents and the energy-price path point at. The cut branch would need a sharp growth or labour-market deterioration inside the autumn. This is a two-sided falsifier, which is why the probability is far below the July instance.
When does Tempora reconcile?
By 11 December 2026, within days of the statement, on the public tracker with the decision language and the statement date quoted.
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Franchise-tier forward call published by Tempora Research. Methodology reproducible against the public engine using Swiss Ephemeris with True Pushya Paksha ayanamsa (PVRN Rao). Internal audit log maintained. This article does not constitute investment, financial, legal, medical or professional advice. First published 30 July 2026 by Tempora Research.