The Nifty November 2026 Close Lands Within 3 Per Cent of October
Published 26 September 2026
This is the fourth instance of a monthly band instrument that has met three times, in June, July and August. Those three pages did not publish the instrument's base rate. This one does, and it is not flattering: the Nifty closes within 3 per cent of the prior month in 46 per cent of months since 2008, and in 39 per cent of Novembers specifically. Filed today, before the October close that sets the band is known.
Stated probability 0.42 against a base rate of 0.39. Across 224 months since 2008 the Nifty 50 monthly close landed within 3 per cent of the prior monthly close in 46 per cent of months. By calendar month the figure is 33 per cent for October, 39 for November and 56 for December. The franchise record of three from three says less than it appears to, and publishing the real base rate beside it is the point of this entry.
Design and lineage
Fourth instance of the monthly band franchise. The base rate is computed and published for the first time, 46 per cent across 224 months since 2008 with strong month-of-year variation, and the entry is filed before the anchoring close exists where the earlier three were filed with the anchor already known.
How it reconciles
The verdict publishes by 5 December 2026 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight and stays on the board with its reasoning unedited.
Frequently asked
What is the band?
Plus or minus 3 per cent of the October 2026 monthly close, inclusive. The anchor is not known when this is filed, so the band is stated as a rule and the two numbers follow once the anchor prints.
Has this instrument worked before?
It has met three times, in June, July and August 2026. That record overstates it. The base rate across 224 months since 2008 is 46 per cent, so three consecutive successes is close to what a coin produces.
Why publish a base rate that weakens your own record?
Because a franchise quoting three from three without the base rate is presenting luck as skill. The number is 39 per cent for November specifically, and a reader should see it next to the record.
Why was there no September instance?
It was due on 1 September and was not filed. It has been recorded as missed, because a monthly band filed mid-month is not a forward call.
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Published 26 September 2026. A dated forward call with its reconciliation condition stated in advance; the verdict will be recorded on this page and on the public board. Not financial, medical or personal advice.