India September 2026 CPI Prints Inside 4.5 to 5.2 Per Cent
Published 26 September 2026
The August print came in at 4.82 per cent, the tenth consecutive monthly rise, and it failed our band by two basis points. The reason is worth stating before the next one: that band was sized on the June to July step of 0.07 points, and the series then moved 0.37. This entry sizes the band on the spread of recent steps and widens accordingly.
Stated probability 0.65 against a base rate of 0.55. The last two steps were plus 0.07 and plus 0.37 points. A band of plus or minus 0.35 around the August print of 4.82 covers a step of the larger observed size in either direction, where the August band covered only a step of the smaller size. The base rate is inferred from that spread and is deliberately not generous: two observations are a thin basis for a step distribution and the entry says so.
Design and lineage
Direct successor to INDCPIAUG26, which failed by two basis points because the band was sized from a single recent step in a series whose steps vary by a factor of five. This entry sizes from the observed spread instead.
How it reconciles
The verdict publishes by 20 October 2026 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight and stays on the board with its reasoning unedited.
Frequently asked
What is the call?
That India headline CPI for September 2026 lands between 4.5 and 5.2 per cent inclusive when MOSPI publishes in October. Both a softer and a hotter print fail it.
Why is this band wider than the August one?
Because the August band was sized on a single 0.07 point step and the series then moved 0.37 points, missing by 0.02. Sizing on the spread of observed steps produces a band that survives a move of the larger observed size.
Is a wider band not an easier call?
Yes, and that is stated openly. The stated probability is 0.65 against a base rate of 0.55, so the claimed edge is small. A band that cannot fail is not a call, and this one fails on a move of more than about 0.4 points in either direction.
What happened to the August call?
It failed. The print was 4.82 against a band ceiling of 4.80. It is graded at full weight on the board, because a band re-argued on a narrow miss is not a band.
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Published 26 September 2026. A dated forward call with its reconciliation condition stated in advance; the verdict will be recorded on this page and on the public board. Not financial, medical or personal advice.