India August 2026 CPI Prints Inside 4.2 to 4.8 Percent
Published 27 August 2026
India’s headline CPI has climbed for two consecutive prints, 4.38 percent in June and 4.45 in July, the highest since December 2024 on the new 2024 base. This call is a band, not a direction: the August print lands between 4.2 and 4.8 percent inclusive. A band call on a rising series can fail on either side, downward if the food spike unwinds and upward if it broadens, which is what makes it a real test rather than a trend extension.
Stated probability 0.7 against a base rate of 0.6. Base rate inferred from the observed step sizes of the 2024-base series, where consecutive monthly prints have moved in steps small relative to a 0.6 point band; June to July moved 0.07 points. The tilt above base reflects no announced tax or fuel shock inside the measured month.
Design and lineage
Band-call instrument on a rising series. Lesson applied from the miss register: two-sided bands grade cleanly and cannot be flattered by direction (M2 family). Chart-side: India 1947 MD Mars plus AD Saturn (engine-verified, AD Saturn from 18 Jun 2026) spans the measured month and the release; no lift quoted at monthly resolution.
How it reconciles
The verdict publishes by 20 September 2026 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference source named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight and stays on the board with its reasoning unedited.
Frequently asked
What exactly is called?
That the August 2026 headline CPI number MOSPI publishes in mid September lands between 4.2 and 4.8 percent inclusive. Both a softer print below 4.2 and a hotter print above 4.8 fail it.
Why a band rather than a direction?
A directional call on a rising series is half a coin flip dressed as insight. A band commits to a magnitude and can be wrong in two ways, which makes the grade informative.
Which CPI series is used?
The all-India headline CPI on the 2024=100 base, the series MOSPI moved to in 2026, as printed in the official release.
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Published 27 August 2026. A dated forward call with its reconciliation condition stated in advance; the verdict will be recorded on this page and on the public board. Not financial, medical or personal advice.