The September 2026 FOMC Concludes With No Increase
Published 27 August 2026
The Federal Reserve meets on 15 and 16 September 2026, a projection meeting with a fresh dot plot. This call holds that the meeting ends with no increase in the federal funds target range. The July meeting held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on a 9 to 3 vote, and all three dissents argued for a cut, not a hike. The live question in September is hold against cut. An increase is the outcome nobody on the committee has argued for in public, and it is the only outcome that fails this call.
Stated probability 0.93 against a base rate of 0.95. The base rate reflects that the committee has not raised rates in this cycle and July carried three dissents for a cut and none for a hike; the call is a franchise continuation whose value is cadence and the stated record, not boldness.
Design and lineage
Franchise continuation of FOMCJUL2026 (MET, fifth consecutive hold, 9 to 3 with three cut dissents). The falsifier isolates the one outcome no committee member has publicly argued for. Chart-side: no fresh claim; the USA 1776 period state used across the corpus stands unchanged and no lift is quoted at meeting resolution.
How it reconciles
The verdict publishes by 18 September 2026 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference source named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight and stays on the board with its reasoning unedited.
Frequently asked
What is the call?
That the 15 to 16 September 2026 FOMC announces no increase in the federal funds target range. A hold at 3.50 to 3.75 percent or a cut both fire MET. Only an increase fires FAILED.
Is this not an easy call?
The base rate is high and the article says so. The value is the cadence: the same dated instrument applied to every meeting, graded in public, so that the record includes the quiet meetings and not only the dramatic ones.
When is it reconciled?
Within two days of the 16 September announcement, quoting the implementation note and the vote.
Read next
Published 27 August 2026. A dated forward call with its reconciliation condition stated in advance; the verdict will be recorded on this page and on the public board. Not financial, medical or personal advice.