The October 2026 FOMC Leaves the Range Unchanged
Published 26 September 2026
The Federal Reserve raised the target range to 3.75 to 4.00 per cent on 16 September, its first increase since July 2023, on a unanimous vote. The projections published the same afternoon showed 16 of 18 participants expecting one further increase this year, and two meetings remain. This call holds that the further increase does not come in October. It is filed two-sided, because the instrument that carried our September loss was one-sided and that is precisely what broke it.
Stated probability 0.55 against a base rate of 0.5. The dot plot implies one more increase across two remaining meetings, which alone puts a single meeting near a coin. The small tilt toward a hold reflects that committees moving off a long pause more often leave a meeting between the first and second step than move consecutively. That is a tendency, not a rule, and it is stated as the whole of the edge being claimed.
Design and lineage
Repaired successor to FOMCSEP2026, which failed on a one-sided test resting on an inverted fact. The test is now two-sided and the stated probability sits near a coin, because a three week horizon containing a committee in motion does not support more.
How it reconciles
The verdict publishes by 30 October 2026 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight and stays on the board with its reasoning unedited.
Frequently asked
What is the call?
That the 27 to 28 October 2026 FOMC leaves the target range at 3.75 to 4.00 per cent. Any change, up or down, fires FAILED.
Why two-sided when the previous one was not?
Because the previous one failed partly on design. FOMCSEP2026 asked only whether rates would rise, which made a cut count as a win for reasoning that did not anticipate one. A hold call that fails on any move is the honest shape.
Does the dot plot not settle this?
It implies one more increase this year across two remaining meetings. It does not say which. That is why the stated probability sits near a coin, well below where the September entry put it.
What happened to the September call?
It failed. The Fed raised 25 basis points on a 12 to 0 vote and the entry had claimed an increase had no constituency on the committee, which was wrong on a fact our own tracker had already recorded correctly. The full account is on that page.
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Published 26 September 2026. A dated forward call with its reconciliation condition stated in advance; the verdict will be recorded on this page and on the public board. Not financial, medical or personal advice.