Forward call · Macro · Window July to September 2026 (measured quarter) · Reconciliation by 5 December 2026

India Q2 FY27 Real GDP Prints At or Above 7.0 Per Cent

Published 26 September 2026

Q1 FY27 printed 7.8 per cent against our test of 6.5, clearing by 1.3 percentage points. A call that clears that comfortably was set too low, so this one moves the line to 7.0, which sits at the Reserve Bank projection itself. The release is expected at the end of November.

Tempora's call. India real GDP growth for Q2 FY27, the quarter July to September 2026, prints at or above 7.0 per cent year on year in the National Statistics Office release expected end November 2026. At or above fires MET. Below fires FAILED.

Stated probability 0.6 against a base rate of 0.5. Q1 FY27 printed 7.8 per cent, Q4 FY26 a revised 8.6 and Q1 FY26 a revised 6.9. Three of the last four quarters cleared 7.0, which is the basis for a coin-plus base rate and no more. The line is set at the Reserve Bank projection deliberately, so the call is a test of whether growth holds above the official forecast, the hardest honest line available.

Design and lineage

Successor to INDGDPQ1FY27, which met at 7.8 against a 6.5 line. A threshold cleared by 1.3 points tested very little, so the line moves to the Reserve Bank projection, where the call can only be met if growth holds above the official forecast.

How it reconciles

The verdict publishes by 5 December 2026 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight and stays on the board with its reasoning unedited.

Frequently asked

What is the call?

That India real GDP for July to September 2026 prints at or above 7.0 per cent year on year when the NSO publishes at the end of November.

Why 7.0 and not 6.5 again?

Because 6.5 cleared by 1.3 points in Q1 and a threshold that clears that comfortably has not tested anything. 7.0 is the Reserve Bank projection, so the call now asks whether growth holds above the official forecast.

What did the Q1 call do?

It met. Q1 FY27 printed 7.8 per cent against the 6.5 test, above the RBI projection of 7.0, with services, factory output and construction all faster than a year earlier.