TMC retains West Bengal in the 2026 Vidhan Sabha election (April–May 2026) with Mamata Banerjee returning as Chief Minister. Seat count between 195 and 225 of 294 (central estimate 210). BJP seat count between 55 and 85 (central estimate 70). No coalition government formed.
Mamata Banerjee 1955-01-05 Kolkata natal in Saturn Mahadasha (Sade Sati second leg from 2025), Modi 1950-09-17 Vadnagar natal in Mercury MD, BJP 1980-04-06 Delhi formation chart, TMC 1998-01-01 Kolkata formation chart, India 1947 backdrop. Eight prior Bengal state elections 1991–2021 calibrated Saturn–Mercury dasha signatures against incumbent return vs incumbent loss. Mamata's 2025–2026 Sade Sati second leg + TMC chart Saturn aspect = reduced majority but retention.
8 West Bengal Vidhan Sabha elections 1991–2021. Calibrated dasha signatures: incumbent CM-personal-chart Sade Sati second leg = retention with seat reduction in 5 of 6 cases; incumbent party in Mercury–Saturn antardasha = retention with reduced majority in 3 of 4 cases. 2026 election fits both signatures.
If TMC seat count falls below 148 (simple majority threshold) OR if BJP seat count rises above 130; OR if Mamata Banerjee does not return as Chief Minister; OR if a coalition government is formed instead of single-party majority — the call fails. Reconciliation pulls Election Commission of India result data within 30 days of declaration.