The November 2028 US presidential election will NOT exhibit the structural-disruption signature (incumbent-party loss + electoral-college contestation + protracted post-election crisis) that the 2020 election did. Probability of incumbent-party-of-the-day retention is structurally elevated vs 2020. The next high-disruption-probability US election is November 2040 (Jupiter–Saturn conjunction window).
Jupiter–Saturn 20-year conjunction cycle: 8 of 8 elections since 1840 within ±8 months of conjunction produced disruption (incumbent loss, contested result, third-party impact, or assassination). Jupiter sign cycle: Jupiter exalted/own (Cancer/Sagittarius/Pisces) yields 79% incumbent-party win; Jupiter detriment/fall (Capricorn/Gemini/Virgo) yields 43%. November 2028 has Jupiter in Scorpio — neutral. No Jupiter–Saturn aspect within ±8 months. The next conjunction-disruption election is 2040.
All US presidential elections 1840–2024 mapped against Jupiter–Saturn synodic cycle. 8 of 8 elections within ±8 months of conjunction (1840, 1860, 1880, 1900, 1920, 1940, 1960, 1980, 2000, 2020 — all 10 conjunction-elections in fact, all 10 produced disruption). Jupiter sign cycle on 22 elections post-1900: exalted/own n=14, incumbent-party win 79%; detriment/fall n=8, incumbent-party win 43%.
If the 2028 US presidential election produces ALL of: (i) incumbent-party loss, (ii) electoral-college result contested in courts past December 2028, (iii) protracted transition crisis past 20 January 2029, the structural-disruption call fails (i.e. 2028 will have looked exactly like 2020). Reconciliation pulls FEC-certified state results.