The Public Tracker, Year One: 97 Published Forward Calls, 4 Resolved Verdicts and the Discipline That Holds Both

1. Why the Tracker Exists

Every dated forward call Tempora publishes carries three components: a window inside which the call resolves, a test condition the call is judged against, and a named mechanism the call rests on. The reconciliation discipline documented in Note 004 turns each call into a publicly-testable claim. The tracker at tempora.ltd/tracker is the receipt the discipline produces: the live register of every published call, the verdict logged when each window closes, and the mechanism audit attached to each resolution.

The discipline is what distinguishes a forecasting practice from an interpretive one. Without published verdicts and an audit cycle, no methodology can be evaluated empirically. With them, the methodology becomes the same shape as any other empirical discipline: claim, test, result, audit, update. The accumulated record across the years becomes the methodology's empirical reconciliation against the observational ground.

The tracker is therefore not a marketing instrument. It is the methodological commitment to publishing failures alongside successes, audit findings alongside verdicts, and the structural reading the call rested on alongside the test condition the resolution measured against. The discipline is what the broader research register stakes itself on.

2. The Year-One Numbers

The current state of the tracker, as of mid-2026:

• 97 published forward calls. The cohort spans country charts (India 1947, Russia 1991, USA 1776, China 1949, Iran 1979, Israel 1948, UK 1707 and others), commodity charts (gold, silver, copper, crude oil, the agricultural class), and personal/event-chart calls.
• 4 resolved verdicts. One MET (call 035). Three FAILED (call 042 gold band, call 052 West Bengal seat allocation, the retracted Rahu-Pisces water-events call).
• 93 pending calls. The bulk of the open cohort closes in the Q4 2026 and 2027 windows, with a smaller cluster closing in 2028.

The current ratio of one MET to three FAILED is a small N. The tracker is not yet at the resolution where calibration in the statistical sense can be meaningfully read. The discipline of the present moment is to publish the small-N state honestly. The accumulated record across the open ninety-three windows will populate the calibration over the coming two to four years.

3. The MET Verdict: Call 035

Call 035 is the canonical resolved-and-MET verdict on the tracker. The call was on the March 2026 double-eclipse against the India 1947 founding chart. The test condition required two reconciliation conditions inside a fifteen-trading-day window from the eclipse: a Nifty 50 trend reversal exceeding 2 per cent and a banking or currency event of comparable magnitude.

Both conditions resolved as predicted. The Nifty 50 fell 2.85 per cent on 9 March 2026, six trading days after the 3 March lunar eclipse. The Indian rupee printed record lows around 93.74 to 93.98 per US dollar with the heaviest RBI intervention in approximately a decade. The verdict was logged as MET on 5 May 2026, within the published reconciliation window.

The mechanism audit ran alongside the verdict. The audit identified three documented errors in the mechanism description as originally published (the eclipse dates carried wrong calendar references, the sign attribution of the eclipse axis was stated incorrectly relative to the canonical India 1947 chart positions, the axis attribution conflated two house framings). The errors were documented openly. The verdict on the outcome side remained MET; the audit on the mechanism side returned three documented errors. Both states are published. The discipline requires both.

4. The Three FAILED Verdicts

Three calls resolved as FAILED in the year-one cohort. Each carries a documented post-window analysis and the specific source of the failure.

Call 042 (gold band overshoot). The call published a price band for gold inside a specified window. The window closed with the price outside the band on the upper side. The published verdict notes the overshoot direction and the documented source of the structural-reading miss. The call has remained on the tracker since (per the misses-stay-on-record discipline) with the FAILED verdict and the audit annotation visible.

Call 052 (West Bengal seat allocation). The call published a seat allocation range inside the published window. The actual allocation resolved outside the predicted range. The call carries the FAILED verdict and the documented note on the cohort selection error the original prediction rested on.

The retracted Rahu-Pisces water-events call. The call was published on a temporal premise that the audit cycle subsequently found to be incorrect. The call was retired with the methodology error noted in writing. The retraction is on the tracker as a FAILED state with the audit notation documenting the temporal-premise error.

The three failures each surface a different source of error: a structural-reading miss in the gold case, a cohort-selection error in the seat-allocation case, and a temporal-premise error in the retracted case. The pattern across the three is informative: forward-call failures come from multiple distinct error sources, not a single category. The methodology audit cycle is designed to surface each error type and update the discipline accordingly.

5. The Open Ninety-Three Calls

The open cohort distributes across the chart-side categories the canonical library covers. The principal clusters:

• India 1947 chart cluster (forward calls on currency, equities, real estate, defence, political institutions, and government transitions across the 2026 to 2030 window).
• Russia 1991 chart cluster (calls on the February 2028 window and adjacent forward windows through the Russia chart's structural transitions).
• USA 1776 chart cluster (forward calls on the late 2027 to 2029 recession-cluster windows and political-cycle markers).
• China 1949 chart cluster (calls on the 2026 to 2028 macro window and the China-Taiwan structural reading).
• Iran 1979 chart cluster (calls on the 2026 to 2029 leadership-disturbance windows).
• Commodity cluster (gold band targets, silver, crude oil, copper, agricultural-class reads).
• Personal and event-chart calls (sports outcomes, cricket cycles, specific event-window predictions).

The bulk of the open cohort closes in 2027. The Q4 2026 cluster closes a smaller subset. The 2028 cluster closes the longest-arc forward calls. By late 2027 the resolved-verdict count will grow from the current four to a sample meaningful for calibration reading.

6. The Verdict-Shape Pattern

As the open cohort runs through the year, the chart-side engine re-evaluates each open call against the expanded engine state (per the retrofit documented in Note 005 and the cross-note coherence work). The re-evaluation produces a verdict shape per call:

• CONFIRM. The chart-side reading at re-evaluation matches the original call direction. The call stays on the tracker as published.
• SHARPEN. The chart-side reading at re-evaluation supports the call direction but suggests a sub-window timing-shift inside the original window. The article body carries the timing-shift amendment; the published window stays on the tracker.
• WIDEN. The chart-side reading at re-evaluation suggests more uncertainty than the original framing carried. The article body carries the widening amendment; the published call stays on the tracker.
• REVERSE. The chart-side reading at re-evaluation reads opposite the original call direction. The article body carries the reversed reading; the published call stays on the tracker. The original call remains as written; the chart-side disagreement is documented as an amendment, never an edit to the scoreboard.
• RE-ANCHOR. The chart-side reading suggests the chart selection itself may be wrong. The article body documents the candidate chart and the audit cycle; the published call stays on the tracker.
• REVISE PREMISE. The chart-side reading suggests the mechanism description needs reframing. The article body carries the corrected mechanism; the published call stays on the tracker with the original framing preserved.

The six-verdict-shape pattern is the operating discipline for the open cohort. Each shape is a documented annotation on the call. The published call itself is never edited; the chart-side disagreement always sits as an amendment. The discipline is that no edit conceals the original framing.

7. What Year One Taught

Three structural lessons from the year-one cohort are worth naming explicitly.

The first is that the resolution distribution is sparse. Four resolutions on ninety-seven calls is approximately 4 per cent of the cohort resolving in the first twelve months. The structural-promise reading runs over longer windows than typical short-form prediction practice; the resolution distribution will accelerate as the open windows close, but the first-year discipline of waiting on resolution is part of the discipline. Calibration cannot be read from the year-one numbers; it can begin to be read by late 2027.

The second is that mechanism audits surface errors independent of outcome. Call 035 was MET; the audit returned three documented mechanism errors in the article's original publication. Publishing both states (the MET verdict and the audit findings) is the discipline. The temptation to publish only the verdict and bury the audit is the failure mode the discipline guards against. Year one has reinforced that the audit is non-negotiable.

The third is that the three FAILED verdicts surface different error sources. A structural-reading miss, a cohort-selection error, and a temporal-premise error are three distinct failure modes. The methodology audit cycle needs to handle each separately. The discipline has been refined over the year-one cohort to surface the error type at each FAILED resolution, so the lesson can be applied to subsequent calls.

8. What Year Two Will Surface

The Q4 2026 cluster closes approximately twelve to fifteen calls. The 2027 cluster closes approximately forty to fifty calls. By late 2027 the resolved-verdict count will likely grow from the current four to approximately sixty to seventy resolved verdicts. The accumulated record at that point is a meaningful sample for calibration reading on the methodology.

The calibration question is not yet answerable at the resolution the year-one numbers support. By late 2027 the question will be answerable. The discipline of the present moment is to publish the small-N state honestly, hold the misses on the tracker indefinitely, and wait for the calibration to grow.

The cross-chart cluster reading on the Saturn-Aries macro window (per Note 015) is one of the principal structural-mechanism layers the open cohort draws on. The cluster closing in late 2026 and 2027 will be a substantial test of the macro-reading discipline. The structural reading is documented; the per-call test conditions are published; the verdicts will be logged in real time as the windows close.

9. The Discipline Year Two Inherits

The year-one tracker has surfaced the operating discipline the methodology runs on. The principal points the discipline holds to:

Misses stay on the tracker indefinitely. FAILED verdicts do not disappear after a quarter or a year. They remain on the public register with the audit annotation and the documented error source. The discipline is that the methodology bears responsibility for its misses as completely as it claims credit for its hits.

Mechanisms get corrected in the open. The MET on call 035 ran alongside three documented mechanism errors in the original publication. The audit was published openly. The discipline is that the published call is not the final word; the audit follows and updates the documented reading. The original call stays on the tracker exactly as published; the audit annotation sits alongside.

The tracker scoreboard is the receipt the methodology stakes itself on. Forward calls are not interpretive readings or commentary. They are dated public claims with test conditions and named mechanisms. The accumulated track record across the years is the methodology's empirical reconciliation against the observational ground. Without the public tracker, no Vedic methodology can be evaluated empirically. With it, the methodology becomes the same shape as any other empirical discipline.

10. Worked Example: The Call 035 Audit Trail

This section walks through the canonical resolved-and-MET verdict in detail. Call 035 is the cleanest illustration of the four-step pattern the reconciliation discipline produces in practice.

Step 1: The published call

The call was published before the window opened with the three components: window (14 March 2026 to 30 April 2026), test condition (Nifty 50 trend reversal exceeding 2 per cent within 15 trading days of the eclipse AND a banking or currency event of comparable magnitude within the same window), and named mechanism (the March 2026 lunar and solar eclipse pair fall on the India 1947 chart's 2nd-to-8th house axis, which classically governs wealth, accumulated reserves, debt and structural transition).

Step 2: The window resolves

The Nifty 50 fell 2.85 per cent on 9 March 2026, six trading days after the 3 March lunar eclipse. The first reconciliation condition resolved as predicted. The Indian rupee printed record lows around 93.74 to 93.98 per US dollar against the spot reference rate. The RBI's documented intervention during the window was the heaviest in approximately a decade. The second reconciliation condition resolved as predicted. The proximate cause of the rupee move was the Iran-war oil price shock that broke out in the same days, with the RBI intervention as the response.

Both reconciliation conditions resolved as the call's test condition required. The verdict on call 035 was logged as MET on 5 May 2026, within the published reconciliation window.

Step 3: The mechanism audit

The audit cycle ran independently of the verdict. The audit on call 035 identified three documented errors in the mechanism description as originally published:

• The eclipse dates carried in the original article text named the wrong calendar references for the lunar and solar eclipses of March 2026.
• The sign attribution of the eclipse axis was stated incorrectly relative to the canonical India 1947 chart positions.
• The axis attribution to the 2nd-to-8th house framing was conflated with an alternate axis framing in two paragraphs of the article body.

The audit findings were published openly alongside the verdict. The article's Section 2 reconciliation block carries the MET verdict on both conditions AND the three mechanism corrections (with the corrected eclipse dates, corrected sign attribution and corrected axis framing).

Step 4: The discipline preserved

The verdict on the outcome is preserved. The mechanism corrections are preserved next to the verdict. The published Section 2 reconciliation block reads as follows: "Both reconciliation conditions met. Nifty fell 2.85 per cent on 9 March 2026 within 15 trading days of the 3 March lunar eclipse. Rupee record lows around 93.74 to 93.98 per US dollar with heaviest RBI intervention in a decade. Outcome MET. Note: mechanism description in article had three documented errors (eclipse dates, signs, axis attribution); see article Section 2 for full reconciliation and the canonical-natal-mismatch finding."

The discipline is that no edit conceals either state. The article stays on the tracker indefinitely with the original call, the verified outcome, the three mechanism errors and the corrected reading all visible. This is the editorial commitment the broader methodology stakes itself on. Call 035 is the canonical illustration of the discipline in operation.

The reader who wants to verify the full audit trail can do so against the published article at tempora.ltd, the public tracker, and the public financial-market reference series for the documented dates. The verdict is in writing. The audit is in writing. The discipline depends on both being visible. Year one of the tracker has established this as the operating model. Year two will populate it with substantially more resolved verdicts at the same standard.

10. Frequently asked

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