Three or Fewer Named Cyclones Over the Bay of Bengal This Post-Monsoon
Published 26 September 2026
The Bay of Bengal has two cyclone seasons and the October to December window is the larger of them, with November the peak month and October second. The board carries Atlantic hurricane work and nothing on the Indian Ocean, which is the basin that actually matters to the country most of this research is about. This entry counts named cyclonic storms and nothing else.
Stated probability 0.6 against a base rate of 0.55. Published surveys put total Bay of Bengal cyclone formation near three to four a year across both seasons, with the post-monsoon window carrying the larger share: one study counts 58 of 77 landfalling storms between 1982 and 2020 in October to December. That points to a post-monsoon central expectation somewhere near two to three named storms, which places a threshold of three or fewer modestly on the favourable side of a coin. This base rate is inferred from secondary literature, and it is stated as approximate for that reason.
Design and lineage
First Indian Ocean entry, filed alongside the Atlantic work so the two basins sit on the same register. The base rate is inferred from secondary literature, which is a weaker footing than this register usually stands on, and the entry says so.
How it reconciles
The verdict publishes by 10 January 2027 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight and stays on the board with its reasoning unedited.
Frequently asked
What is the call?
That three or fewer named cyclonic storms form over the Bay of Bengal between 1 October and 31 December 2026 on the IMD record. A fourth named storm fails it.
What counts as a named storm?
A system reaching cyclonic storm intensity and receiving a name on the IMD record. Depressions and deep depressions that never reach naming intensity are excluded, because that is where published counts diverge most.
How reliable is the base rate?
Less than usual, and the entry says so. It is inferred from published surveys; a direct computation from the IMD series is pending. Published work puts basin formation near three to four a year across both seasons with the post-monsoon window carrying the larger share.
Why the Bay of Bengal?
Because the board carries Atlantic hurricane work and nothing on the basin that actually affects the country most of this research concerns. It also allows the two basins to be compared on the same register in the same season.
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Published 26 September 2026. A dated forward call with its reconciliation condition stated in advance; the verdict will be recorded on this page and on the public board. Not financial, medical or personal advice.