Lab entry · Markets · Window to 31 December 2026 · Reconciliation by 5 January 2027

Gold Ends 2026 Between 3,900 and 4,900 Dollars

Published 26 September 2026

Call 042 closes on 30 September and nothing replaces it, which would leave the board with no gold exposure through a quarter in which Jupiter remains exalted in Cancer and the Fed has begun raising. Gold trades near 4,321 after a 27 per cent rise from the June 2025 baseline. This entry is a two-sided band, sized at roughly one standard deviation of recent three-month moves.

Tempora's call. The London bullion market gold fix on the final trading day of 2026 lands between 3,900 and 4,900 US dollars per troy ounce inclusive. Inside fires MET. Outside on either side fires FAILED.

Stated probability 0.6 against a base rate of 0.58. Gold traded near 4,321 at filing. The standard deviation of three-month percentage changes since mid 2025 is 13.6 per cent, and the band spans minus 9.7 to plus 13.4 per cent from the filing level, plus or minus 11.4 per cent around its 4,400 midpoint, so it covers a little under one standard deviation in each direction. On a normal approximation that is close to a 58 per cent base rate, and the stated probability adds almost nothing to it. The lookback matters: over the full futures history since 2005 a band of this geometry captured 83 per cent of three-month outcomes, over the last twelve months 48 per cent. The base rate is set on the recent regime because that is the harder footing. Gold has been trending strongly, which fattens the upside tail and is the main reason the claimed edge is minimal.

Design and lineage

Replacement for call 042, which closes 30 September and previously failed on overshoot when gold ran past the called band. That failure is why this entry is a two-sided band sized on measured volatility.

How it reconciles

The verdict publishes by 5 January 2027 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight and stays on the board with its reasoning unedited.

Frequently asked

What is the call?

That the London gold fix on the last trading day of 2026 lands between 3,900 and 4,900 dollars an ounce. Both a fall below and a rally above fail it.

Why a two-sided band?

Because the previous gold call failed on overshoot: the direction was right and the magnitude was not. A two-sided band sized on measured volatility grades cleanly and cannot be right for the wrong reason.

How wide is the band in volatility terms?

Minus 9.7 to plus 13.4 per cent from the filing level, plus or minus 11.4 around the 4,400 midpoint, against a 13.6 per cent standard deviation on three-month moves since mid 2025. Slightly under one standard deviation each way, which is why the stated probability is barely above the base rate.