Lab entry · Markets · Window to 31 December 2026 · Reconciliation by 5 January 2027

The Rupee Ends 2026 Between 95.50 and 99.50

Published 26 September 2026

No currency call is currently open on either board, which is a gap given how much of the Indian macro work here depends on the rupee. USD INR trades near 96.16, against 94.79 three months ago and 88.70 twelve months ago, a depreciation of 8.4 per cent across the year. The band below is deliberately asymmetric, because a symmetric band on a trending series is a band centred on the wrong number.

Tempora's call. The USD INR spot rate on the final trading day of 2026 lands between 95.50 and 99.50 inclusive. Inside fires MET. Outside on either side fires FAILED.

Stated probability 0.65 against a base rate of 0.6. Monthly USD INR moves carry a standard deviation of 1.09 per cent and 84 per cent of months land inside plus or minus 1.5 per cent. Over a three month horizon the implied standard deviation is about 1.9 per cent. The band spans roughly minus 0.7 to plus 3.5 per cent from the filing level, which is wider on the upside because the twelve month drift has been depreciation at 8.4 per cent. A symmetric band here would be mis-centred, and saying so is part of the entry.

Design and lineage

First currency entry on either register. The design point is the asymmetry: a symmetric band on a trending series is mis-centred, so the band is skewed to carry the observed depreciation drift and the skew is stated openly.

How it reconciles

The verdict publishes by 5 January 2027 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight and stays on the board with its reasoning unedited.

Frequently asked

What is the call?

That USD INR closes 2026 between 95.50 and 99.50. A sharper depreciation past 99.50 and an appreciation below 95.50 both fail it.

Why is the band not centred on the current rate?

Because the rupee trends. It has depreciated 8.4 per cent over twelve months, so a band centred on spot would sit below where drift alone points. The band is skewed upward to carry that, and the skew is stated.

How much room does the band give?

About minus 0.7 to plus 3.5 per cent from the filing level, against an implied three month standard deviation near 1.9 per cent. Wider on the depreciation side, tight on the appreciation side. On a normal approximation with that deviation the band captures about 61 per cent of outcomes, which is where the base rate of 0.6 comes from. Over rolling three-month windows in the last five years a band of this geometry captured 81 per cent; over non-overlapping calendar quarters since 2005, 56 per cent. The lower figure is weighted because the last twelve months ran more volatile than the five-year average.