India's October CPI Lands Between 5.0 and 6.1
Published 13 October 2026
The September print came in at 5.54 per cent, a 0.71 point step, and our 4.5 to 5.2 band failed, the second CPI band to fail in two months. Both were sized from the last one or two steps. This entry sizes from the whole step record and says what that costs: a band wide enough to hold most months is a band that claims little.
Stated probability 0.6 against a base rate of 0.6. The band is the September print of 5.54 plus or minus 0.55 points. Across 146 monthly steps in the previous CPI series from 2013 to 2025, 60 per cent were at or below 0.5 points in absolute size and the standard deviation of steps was 0.80, so the band spans about 0.7 of a standard deviation each way. October steps specifically were inside 0.5 in 8 of 12 years. No mechanism is asserted and the probability sits on the base rate.
Design and lineage
Third CPI band in the series. INDCPIAUG26 was sized from one step and failed by two basis points. INDCPISEP26 was sized from two steps and failed by 34. The lesson was applied twice and was not enough, because the sample was the problem. The step record of the previous series, 146 observations, is the sizing basis here and will stay the basis until the new series has a record of its own. Seasonal check: the September to October step was minus 0.64 in 2022, minus 0.15 in 2023 and plus 0.72 in 2024.
What was recorded at filing
Consensus: No economist poll for October yet; RBI Q3 FY27 projection 6.0 per cent (quarter average) (RBI Monetary Policy Statement 7 October 2026, 2026-10-07). Base rate basis: 146 monthly steps in CPI YoY, Jan 2013 to Mar 2025 (FRED INDCPIALLMINMEI): 60.3 per cent at or below 0.5 points absolute; SD of steps 0.80. Seasonal check: Sep to Oct step: 2022 minus 0.64, 2023 minus 0.15, 2024 plus 0.72. Level at filing 5.54, threshold distance 0.69 standard deviations.
How it reconciles
The verdict publishes by 14 November 2026 on this page and on the public board, quoting the reference named in the call. A failed entry is graded at full weight, stays on the board with its reasoning unedited, and adds a row to the failure ledger.
Frequently asked
What is the call?
That October headline CPI prints between 5.0 and 6.1 per cent inclusive. A print above 6.1 or below 5.0 fails it.
Why is the band so much wider than the last two?
Because the last two were sized from one and two recent steps and both failed. This one is sized from 146 steps, and 60 per cent of them fit inside half a point.
What does the RBI expect?
A Q3 FY27 average of 6.0 per cent, which sits inside the band near its upper edge. The band is not centred on the projection; it is centred on the last print.
What would make October move a lot?
Food. Onions ran 108 per cent in September and vegetable prices move fast in both directions after the monsoon. That is why the band is two-sided.
Read next
Published 13 October 2026. A dated forward call with its reconciliation condition stated in advance; the verdict will be recorded on this page and on the public board. Not financial, medical or personal advice.